TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
232 PM EDT THU JUN 07 2007

IN A REVERSAL TO PREVIOUS
RUN...THE GFS AND REGIONAL NAM MODELS NOW DEVELOP AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER SOUTHERN/CENTRAL FLORIDA. AT 60-72 HRS THEY FORECAST THIS
LOW TO MIGRATE SOUTH TO WESTERN CUBA. THE LOW WILL SUSTAIN A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH AT MID/UPPER LEVELS...WITH AXIS ACROSS WESTERN CUBA TO
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN/GULF OF HONDURAS BY 48-72 HRS.

THIS FEATURE WILL SUSTAIN AN AREA OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND WESTERN-CENTRAL CUBA THROUGH 42-48
HRS...WHERE IT WILL FAVOR RAINFALL ACCUMULATION OF 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 25-50MM...WITH MOST INTENSE ACROSS BIMINI-GRAND BAHAMA
AND GREAT ABACO. ACROSS CENTRAL/WESTERN CUBA IT WILL FAVOR K INDEX
VALUES OF 32-36...AND RAINFALL ACCUMULATION OF 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. FURTHERMORE...AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVER
CUBA..