| madmumbler |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jun 09 2007 08:35 PM |
|
Re: Week Ahead
|
This is from the NHC:
Quote:
205 PM EDT SAT JUN 09 2007
--snipped--
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE 12Z SFC MAP OFF THE COAST
OF AFRICA ALONG 14W/15W S OF 13N ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING W 15-20
KT. THERE IS NOT MUCH DEBATE ABOUT THE EXISTENCE OR PSN OF THIS
WAVE WITH A LARGE AREA...ABOUT 10-12 DEGREES OF LONGITUDE...OF
WELL DEFINED LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING EVIDENT ON
SATELLITE IMAGES AND TO SOME DEGREE IN QSCAT DATA. THERE IS ALSO
A POSSIBLE LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 7N WHICH MAY BE ADDED TO THE
18Z ANALYSIS. SFC OBS...MOSTLY STATIONS OVER AFRICA...CLEARLY
INDICATE THIS FEATURE WITH 24-H PRES DROPS IN THE 2-4 MB RANGE
IN DAKAR AND SURROUNDING CITIES. CONVECTION HAS DECREASED SOME
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS BUT SCATTERED MODERATE STILL EXISTS
FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 13W-19W.
The only reason I'm asking is because TWC mentioned it in either their 2 or 3 pm Tropical Update. And the emphasis was on, "Low pressure systems don't usually survive when they come across from Africa," like it was a different feature than a "normal" tropical wave.
Are the pressure drops they're talking about "significant" or are they just mentioning them because they actually have surface observations due to it forming on shore?
I know we look to the BOC, GOM, and Carribbean this time of year, and I'm not saying I think this one is going to turn into anything either. I'm just wondering is it normal to see a feature this large come off Africa this time of year, and historically have any Cape Verde storms come across the Atlantic this time of year?
I guess what I'm asking is, is this an anomaly, or is it an interesting but nothing to worry about feature, or is it totally normal and NOT anomalous, or is it something we should keep an eye on (NOT wishcasting!!), or where does it exactly fit into the scheme of things? How do we separate the "don't worry about it" from the "keep an eye on it?"