TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
218 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2007 (edited~danielw)

...A WANING TUTT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF/ CAMPECHE SOUND...WILL MOVE OVER YUCATAN PENINSULA BY 24 HRS... WITH WEAK VORTEX OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BY 48 HRS. AT 60-72 HRS IT WILL LIFT ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AS IT MERGES INTO THE BASE OF A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE BAHAMAS/ EASTERN USA.

...WITH A STRONG VORTEX ACROSS NORTHERN GEORGIA/ CAROLINAS TO MOVE OFF THE COAST AND NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS BY 24 HRS.
AT 500 HPA THIS VORTEX WILL MERGE/ INTERACT WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE TUTT OVER YUCATAN/ WESTERN CUBA... TO FAVOR/ SUSTAIN AN ELONGATED TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN CUBA
INTO THE YUCATAN.
AT LOW LEVELS A MEANDERING FRONT WILL SLIDE OVER THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS BY 18 HRS...TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS GREAT ABACO-GRAND BAHAMA THROUGH 48-54 HRS...THEN WEAKEN AS IT RETROGRESSES.

(edit~danielw: Basically... Florida receives more rain/ rain showers)

...A PROGRESSIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED ALONG 63W AND SOUTH OF 17N.
THIS WAVE WILL MOVE ALONG 67/68W BY 24 HRS... 71W/72W BY 36 HRS...74W BY 48 HRS...76W/77W BY 60 HRS...78W BY 72 HRS...AND 80W/81W BY 84 HRS.
WINDS ARE TO SURGE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES FOLLOWING THIS WAVE... WITH GFS PROJECTING 850 HPA (5000ft~) WINDS OF 25-35KT ACROSS THE ISLANDS BY 24-84 HRS.
THE STRONG WINDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH 36-42 HRS... WITH WINDS OF 35-45KT.

(edit~danielw: 850mb winds adjusted to surface levels are just under Tropical Storm force. Using an 80% correction)

CARIBBEAN FORECAST DISCUSSION