I have to agree with the NHC TWO on this one. The Upper level winds will begin to slacken as we move into tomorrow afternoon, and could become more and more favorable as we move through Friday night and into the weekend. Last night, I made refernce to an upper level low to the west of theYucatan as well as some other upper level features. Last nights post reflected more on the idea that the upper level low west of the Yucatan and could aid in some weak development (at the time, I was saying in about 48 hours). As we can see this evening, the upper level low did not remain planted to the west of the Yucatan. In fact, the the upper trough over Florida seems to have grabbed that upper low and has pulled it off to the east north east. At this time, the upper level low is presently over 94L and is on it's way out.

While this upper level low is harming 94L's opportunity to become better organized at this time, it is moving out fairly quickly and should not overly harm the basic dynamics that are permitting this surface area of low pressure (94L) in the western Carribean. As the upper level low departs to the ENE, there is an area of ridging and lighter upper winds across the western GOMex and Mexico that will have an opportunity to fill in behind the cutoff. With that said, this air mass is a bit "arid", but the winds will become more favorable over the Western Carribean and the Eastern Gulf. I know I have seen tropical systems that developed while working with less. Tropical Storm Arlene in 2005 is not a bad example. So with that said, I would not write this one off if it does not develop in the next 24 hours and I believe that tomorrow night into Saturday will be more interesting with respect to development opportunities.

P.S. The Water Vapor Link demonstrates tonight's observations pretty good: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html