Just in quick addition to the previous post. The weather analysis identifies surface low pressure area over the western Carribean as an elongated system. The NCEP Fronts analys is on the carribean satellite loops identifies the a 1006 mb Low off of Cozumel and a1007 mb low north of Hondorus within this elongated system. With this upper level air pattern, even though the area north of Hondorus has slightly higher pressure, what originates from there will likely be a better area to watch than the 1006mb low off of Cozumel.

Shortwave Link (Hint, click on the NCEP Fronts at the top of the satellite loop image to observe the orientation of these two surface lows within the trough): http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-ir2.html