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I continue to feel that it is premature to completely write off any disturbance in the area south of Cuba however it is becoming more evident that the feature being tracked between the Yucatan and the area S. of Cuba is failing to develop. It appears the Recon that was scheduled for later today has been canceled for good reason. The latest surface analysis suggests that the two low pressure areas near the Yucatan are dissipating. Satellite still shows some convective activity but not directly associated with the low pressure centers. WV loops show the moisture migrating to the north has regressed somewhat. As there is a tropical wave approaching this area and a weak trough remains, and the SSTs are now high enough to provide energy for some development, I would continue to watch the area but for now I'm not even sure we will even get the badly needed rain I was looking for earlier. It could still happen but my thinking is not this time from this system. |