danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Fri Jun 15 2007 03:23 PM
Re: Watching the Northwest Caribbean...

...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WANING TUTT ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH 42-48 HRS AS IT MOVES THROUGH WESTERN CUBA TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA/NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.
AT LOW LEVELS A TROUGH EXTEND FROM GUATEMALA TO WESTERN CUBA/NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.
THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH 48-54 HRS... THEN MOVE WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO-YUCATAN-NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO BY 60-72 HRS.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/fxca20.html

Sat imagery through 1825Z 225pmEDT is showing light winds in the NW Caribbean. Sea breeze front moving onshore over the Eastern Yucatan Coast.
There is possibly a broad area of lower pressure and an ever so slight broad circulation visible . Between the Yucatan Channel and the Honduran Coast.
The Sun is nearly overhead lending to cloud shadows on the surface.
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

Unless a shortwave can swing through the Eastern GOM, I don't see much chance of the Upper FL Peninsula getting more than the usual afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

Just a quick roundup. I'm not a MET and I didn't stay at Holiday Inn last night