Hurricane29
(Weather Guru)
Fri Jun 15 2007 04:35 PM
Re: Watching the Northwest Caribbean...

We'll atleast the miami NWS has changed there tune a bit...



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
227 PM EDT FRI JUN 15 2007

.DISCUSSION...BIG DIFFERENCES IN 12Z MODEL RUNS CONSIDERING DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND THIS HAS RESULTED IN DECISION
IN GOING CLOSER TO THE ENSEMBLE RUN. THE GFS NOW HAS A SFC LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND MOVING ACROSS S FLA ON
SATURDAY. THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NE INTO THE BAHAMAS BY
SUNDAY. EITHER SCENARIO HAS POPS ALL OVER THE PLACE FROM MAV AND
MET GUIDANCE. THIS ANOTHER REASON TO GO WITH THE ENSEMBLE. WHEREAS
THE GFS SHOWS THIS SFC LOW, THE NAM HOWEVER SHOWS A COMPLETELY
DIFFERENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN
BUILDING INTO THE SE GOFMEX WHICH PUSHES THE TROPICAL BOUNDARY
NORTHWARD WHILE THE UPPER LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MOVES
FARTHER AWAY INTO THE N ATLANTIC. WITH THE GFS JUST SHOWING THIS
LOW IN ITS LATEST RUN, HAVE OPTED TO IGNORE THAT IN THE WIND
FIELD. SO IT REALLY DEPENDS ON HOW THIS ALL TRANSPIRES AS TO HOW
MUCH PRECIP S FLA DEVELOPS. AT ANY RATE, ALL MODELS SHOW A DRYING
TREND TO ENSUE EARLY NEXT WEEK.