cieldumort
(Moderator)
Thu Jun 21 2007 10:28 PM
Re: Western Caribbean Area

It should be helpful to get a good look at the next QuikSCAT pass over the Caribbean feature. Based on a few area buoy, land and ship reports in the area I glanced-over, there could be some low level turning within the broader cluster. The data is just too sparse and the feature too weak to really make any heads or tails out of it without some help from scat.

I've also noted a few reports of slightly lowering pressures, but nothing at all significant. Again, data being sparse in the area isn't helpful. But, one would sort of expect to see something a little better than a 2mb drop over the course of one full day from a nearby buoy if it were to be getting its act together.

Clearly, its only window for significant development would be if it does in fact jog and/or relocate more over the water - I have also been watching what LPC notes above, with some interest (a possible shift more to the NW than W). And, there is some upper level outflow. This is not altogether unusual, however. Not a "hallmark" of something becoming a tropical cyclone, if you will. Thunderstorm complexes can and do create their own high pressure areas aloft.

Both of these features (Caribbean disturbance & Florida frontal low) did make it into the 5:30 TWO, but without causing a stir. "Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours."



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