cieldumort
(Moderator)
Fri Jun 22 2007 02:38 PM
Re: Western Caribbean Area

I guess I sure am glad to say that I qualified my assessment last night to require another five or six hours of development of either or both features before they were worthy of an Invest tag. From the looks of the loops this morning, just about no sooner had I hit enter on my posts, than did the convection of the Caribbean system start dissolve, and the convection of the Florida coast low get blown on out to sea with the high winds it finds itself in. Plus, it has a serious problem with dry, stable air pushing in from the north.

Few things of note, and perhaps anyone would like to offer a different perspective. I agree with others who have already pointed out that the western Caribbean disturbance has probably been pulled something a little north of west (rather than the much-advertised due westward movement) with significant rotation in the low to mid levels noted on the tip of Honduras/Nicaragua, with convection attempting to flare back up generally within that obvious rotation.

With regards to the low east of Florida, most analysis puts the center of the low further east of where it was, and well-east of where it would have been had it been simply drifting south. This location suggests that the convection which flared mightily overnight did in fact flare up along the eastern semicircle, tried to hang on for dear life, got blown away, but at first light today it looks like more convection keeps attempting to flare back up on the outer reaches of the llc. Unless upper level winds relax, it looks like Dem5 has called its demise about right, and these flareups will represent not much more, if nothing more, than a last gasp before this thing can be chalked up to having gone through the shredder.

Not much else out there. A new flare up north of the Antilles, perhaps. The overall environment, while seemingly a tiny bit better, perhaps - specifically, the moisture content looks a little improved here or there and water temps are up a little - is still unfavorable. The 200 hPa velocity potential anomalies are speaking volumes.



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