I beg to differ - so does NHC. From the TWO this morning: "CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AMERICA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL
WAVE"

As noted on my Main Page update yesterday morning - at that time the system even had a hint of a mid-level circulation - that is no longer discernable. Your probability of development was about right, but not the analysis - the system is, and has been, tropical in nature but its not likely to do anything.

With the ongoing satellite imagery problems at NASA MSFC, I have placed a close-up of the wave on the Main Page update. Just click on 'Honduras'.
Cheers,
ED