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Nice point on that.. I probably should of said No tropical development instead of activity. I agree and see they also talk about the difflent pattern aloft like i mentioned. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 85W S OF 20N MOVING W 10 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING N OF 16N. THE WAVE IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...MAINLY OVER NICARAGUA. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT ANTICIPATED. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS HELPING TO ENHANCE THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. ACCORDING TO THE GFS MODEL...MOISTURE FROM THIS WAVE SHOULD AFFECT BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SAT AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SUN. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE BASIN ANCHORED ON A HIGH LOCATED SOUTH OF JAMAICA NEAR 15N77W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH FROM CENTRAL AMERICA ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN INTO CUBA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 85W. 20 TO 25 KT TRADE WINDS ARE BLOWING OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE BASIN W OF 70W. WINDS HAVE DECREASED FROM AROUND 30 KT NEAR THE COLOMBIA COAST YESTERDAY. THESE MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND WILL INCREASE AGAIN SUN THROUGH TUE AS THE ATLC RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA STRENGTHENS. SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS ARE CONCENTRATED ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. TRADE WIND SHOWERS...CHARACTERIZED BY THEIR SHORT DURATION AND LIGHT INTENSITY ARE SEEN OVER THE E-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. |