Yes it is a poor model but that pic of the wave in the carribean you posted is the wave that the CMC has developing.. look at where it's moving, not west. It's just something to watch..
The CMC takes this wave over the islands and rapidly turns it into a Long Island Express like storm, because of teh possible steering currents last year, people would have been watching this more. I will continue to moniter it, it may be a bad forecast model, but it IS a forecast model and should be at least monitered on that weird but possible situation. The wave btw is moving in a NW direction and is firing up convection due to currently marginal to low shear (10-15 knots). This one has a chance.

1:00 p.m. - New CMC run is more reasonable, it has a weak TS hitting the NE instead of a Hurricane. What also makes me believe more that the CMC could be true is that a small circulation has formed on the north part of the wave, and ENE of Puerto Rico. I believe the CMC is hinting that this area of interest is the one to be the player for the NE. It's very clear, convection is good, maybe 97L will come around later tonight if convection and the circulation persists.