The CMC has been all over the place so far this season. BUT finally it looks like it may be onto something. The 12z run today has something coming into NE 108-120 hours out. The gfs and the UK put something (not as aggressive) in there around the same time.

As we enter late July and into the peak of the season, I'm sure there will be several discussions about tropical waves starting with "did you see the CMC this morning?" As of right now, I'm not ready to completely right this Canadian forecast off. I am sure we will all be keeping an eye on things. Just like the mess over the Lesser Antillies...shear is low in the Caribbean and dry air in the mid levels is eroding just a bit. I'm a little nervous about anything moving into those warm warms at this time.