hmm... there is more model support today with this feature off the east coast in the coming days... CMC has been all over the place in the last 3-5 days... heck, had a strong TS/Hurr. in the GOM three days ago... ranging from south Florida to way over in Texas...... now with this wave in the Carb. it began taking it straight up the east coast......Hard to think it was going to happen, pressures were just to high off the east coast... and it was the only model showing something... now with the next trough digging down....we might see some trying to form... as far as being tropical... i not quite sure yet.... I think this may be more of a trough merging with the tropical wave and may throw up something along the NE... (more of a frontal low?)

I am now seeing better agreements coming into long range models about a shift in the wx pattern in the long term runs... upper pattern looks more favaroble going into late July into Aug.,... The ridge appears to work its way into the east US... Shear in the atlantic looks to be more favorable too...

For those who like to see the fronts/sea pressures Loop of sea-level pressures and fronts from the HPC... Just gives an idea of the pattern... NOT OFFICIAL forecast...