cieldumort
(Moderator)
Sat Jul 21 2007 01:51 PM
Re: Things to Watch

Two flights have been tentatively been scheduled http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD_last.shtml?

1. SUSPECT AREA.
FLIGHT ONE
A. 22/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST
C. 22/1300Z
D. 32.0N 64.0W


FLIGHT TWO
A. 23/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0203A CYCLONE
C. 23/0100Z
D. 35.0N 64.5W



IMHO, as of this morning there is almost -nothing- there. Looking at 32N 64W the ULL in the region is still far too intense to allow anything at the surface to get going at those coordinates(LINK) . Also, surface pressures there are running a bit high. Additionally, the best low level convergence (LINK) , and indeed even the most impressive 850 mb vorticity -by far- has actually been centered well to the south of there for some time (LINK) .

For this "invest" to come together at that predetermined location by this time Sunday, I suspect that the ULL would need to really pull out of the way and/or weaken a good bit more. Neither appears to be happening at this time. For now, my attention remains focused -just barely- on or about 25N 64W.

Perhaps for a long-shot Invest, 13N 78W. Weak low to mid level cyclonic turning now evident in an already low shear and moist environment. Would probably still run into central America and/or cross in to the east Pac, regardless.