Of more immediate concern to the U.S. and A. is the likely formation of low pressure off the mouth of the Mississippi River. Models are in general disagreement as to the future, but all of the major globals and the NAM (fka ETA) do close off low pressure somewhere from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to south of the FL/AL state line.

The NAM, which is generally discounted in tropical scenarios, did a nice job last week with the Texas/LA rainfall when none of the globals saw it. So whether or not it can be trusted to hit twice within 2 weeks is up for debate. Solutions range from a stationary low to something moving into AL/FL to SE LA . Afterward, some models want to nudge it north to northeast while others (including NAM) bring it WNW across Louisiana as high pressure builds in from the Atlantic.

This will be a relatively short time span if low pressure forms and if it takes on tropical characteristics. We're talking about something forming Thursday or Friday with roughly immediate impacts for the coast. Whether this is a hybrid, frontal low, tropical depression/storm or whatever remains to be seen. But we'll have action this week to talk about.

*edit* Looks like they've got RECON on standby for tomorrow afternoon:

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS

4. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE
A. 02/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01EEA INVEST
C. 02/1730Z
D. 29.0N 88.0W
E. 02/1745Z TO 02/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

Steve