cieldumort i think your right about giving up the goast at daylight. My thinking though is that winds from the cooler ocean naturaly excelerate toward the warmer land mass of central america a trough usually sits over venezuala untill the water of the carribean and adjacent atlantic reach their max and it kinda pulls the trough out from over land into the ocean later in the month and thats when you get your big carribean systems.
the trough being over land now is probbaly the only thing robbing this from inflow from the south not allowing it to close off.