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I'm starting to think that both this feature in the Gulf as well as 99L are not on the development path. While there's a weak surface low with the former in Apalachee Bay, there's just no real focusing mechanism along the broad trough across the northern Gulf -- nor are there any signs of one developing. This may end up just being a rain event for Florida and parts of the SE, a much needed rain event. With 99L, it's a lot like a storm a few years back -- others have said Chantal from 2001, though I haven't looked to see if that's truly the case -- in that it is moving too fast for the convective bursts to have much of an effect in terms of developing a surface circulation. With no surface circulation, convection can't persist and the system can't develop. With conditions a bit more unfavorable further west and no signs of the feature slowing...I'm thinking our development chances from either of the system can be knocked down just a tad. |