the thing steveh1 mentions is about 'it' right now. it doesn't look especially impressive but is maintaining to slightly improving right now, so it might be something in a couple of days. the stuff on the itcz isn't really moving though, at the low levels, while easterly waves are buzzing right along in the low-mid troposphere above the surface convergence and turning. it will need to do something or the next wave will smear it flat back into the itcz.
since 99L tried to go, chantal went, and the eastpac has been modestly active lately, that sudden snap that tends to happen in august during la nina years when everything suddenly switches on is likely not far in the future. it's usually the 15th-20th, which is in the two week period anyhow.
in other news it's hot as blue blazes in the east right now. fairly strong amplitude ridge right now, with troughing offshore. heights will start to fall a tad here and may create a recurvature corridor near the east coast for anything that happens. it does appear, though, that the mean trough position this year is off the east coast and may lead to numerous recurvatures.
HF 2141z06august