Following Hank's post with this morning's Model Run update.
Excerpt from the run.
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
107 AM EDT FRI AUG 10 2007(edited~danielw)

VALID AUG 10/0000 UTC THRU AUG 13/1200 UTC

LOW FORMING/MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND...
THE NAM HAS SHOWN GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THIS SYSTEMS EXPECTED TRACK OVER ITS PAST DAY OF RUNS... THOUGH ITS 09/12Z RUN WAS A STRONG OUTLIER.
THE ECMWF HAS BEEN A BIT WEAKER WITH THIS SYSTEM... BUT HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH A 500 HPA SHORTWAVE RETROGRADING THROUGH
THE AREA WHICH IT HAS BEEN TRENDING SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD WITH OVER ITS PAST COUPLE DAYS OF RUNS.
THE GFS IS WEAK WITH THIS SYSTEM IN THE SURFACE PATTERN... BUT APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY QUICKENING THE PROGRESSION OF ITS 850 HPA REFLECTION OVER ITS PAST DAY OF
RUNS... SHOWING MORE OF A TROPICAL WAVE THAN A SURFACE LOW.

MODEL DIFFERENCES AND PREFERENCES...

LOW FORMING/MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND...
THE NAM IS THE STRONGEST PIECE OF GUIDANCE WITH THIS POSSIBLE SURFACE LOW...
WITH THE CANADIAN THE SECOND STRONGEST AND THE OTHER GUIDANCE A BIT WEAKER.
THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO EMMINATE FROM THE
CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AT THIS TIME.
THE REMAINING GUIDANCE SHOWS MORE OF A TROPICAL WAVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY... WITH
THE ECMWF SHOWING THE MOST NORTHERN SOLUTION. SINCE THE NAM AND CANADIAN ARE NORMALLY TOO BULLISH ON TROPICAL LOWS... WILL BUY THE CONSENSUS DELAYED SCENARIO FOR THE TIME BEING... NOT PREFERRING A
SURFACE LOW UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING...OR THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.
FROM THEN ONWARD...WE WILL BE STICKING WITH WHAT WAS AGREED UPON DURING THE THURSDAY NOON CONFERENCE CALL WITH NHC WITH REASONABLE EXTRAPOLATION OF THE FEATURE INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON
DAY 7.
SEE THE PREEPD ISSUED BY 09Z AND THE RELATED MEDIUM RANGE PROGS CONCERNING THE MEDIUM RANGE FUTURE OF THIS FEATURE. SEE THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK/TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSIONS FROM TPC CONCERNING THE CURRENT STATUS OF THIS SYSTEM.
SEE THE QPF DISCUSSION ISSUED BY 09Z CONCERNING POTENTIAL RAINFALL IMPACT ON
THE KEYS/SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THIS SYSTEM.

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