danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sat Aug 11 2007 12:13 AM
Weak weekend

Plenty of TV hype over the African Wave. And it's way beyond the accurate forecast period for any of the Models.
Still bears keeping an eye toward the CATL Gap- Central Atlantic

Models, NWS offices and at least one of the satellite sites I checked are indicating the Bay of Campeche' / Yucatan Peninsula area is probably the area to watch over the weekend.
Cyclonic circulations at differents levels were visible earlier in the Eastern Bay of Campeche' and just east of the Bahamas. With the former having a more formidible appearance.

Bouy 42055 was located under or near some convection in the western semicircle of the circulation... based on wind direction and wind change over 24 hours. And temp./ dew point being the same... 100% humidity.
Pressure was at it's lowest in the last 5 days. However pressure fall appeared to be diurnal.

Will wait on tonight's model runs to see if the consistancy in the models holds out.

Weak cool front passing thru MS about 70 miles north of the GOM. May add a little stir to the mix.



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