I know the site's official bet on 90L is 5.5 out of 10 that it develops. I'd give it 8.5. I'm not sure where it's going to get classified, but I think it's probably going to happen. GFS long range has been all over the place over the last 3 days with threat areas. It's speculated everything from a fish spinner, to coastal NC, to GA/SC, to South Florida, to the Panhandle, to New Orleans, to Houston, to Mexico (per the 06Z GFS)

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/index_pcp_s_loop.shtml

Western Pacific teleconnections (TD #09) would agree with strong ridging into the SEUS 10 days down the line. That's something to watch to see if it becomes an eventual hit on Taiwan or the Chinese mainland (telegraphing downstream ridging 7-10 days in the West Atlantic).

https://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc/warnings/wp0907.gif

Gonna be an interesting few weeks. I completely agree with Clark and other mets who beileve that once this season gets going, it's going to be fast and furious.

FWIW, Accuweather's 8/07 video update said they were still calling for 6 U.S. landfalls (4 canes - 1 or 2 major, 2 Tropical Storms). We haven't seen much yet, so if those guys are right, 2007 will be remembered for a long time to come much like 2002, 2004 and 2005 have been thus far in the decade.

Steve