Random Chaos
(Weather Analyst)
Sun Aug 12 2007 04:29 PM
Re: Two Things to Watch and Flossie

90L:

Taking a look at the SSTs and hurican heat potential (HHC) maps, there isn't a lot of heat before it reaches the Windward Islands. If the storm curves north toward the east coast, the surface temperatures are lower, and development will be slower.

I do see that in addition to lower-than-optimal SSTs ahead of it, there appears to be some SAL (Saharan Air Layer) dipping in front of it that will probably slow it's development.

I would expect that it won't do a lot until it passes the Windward Islands, but then it will get into much warmer waters that could aid development, but that's too far out for anything more than guessing.

Reference SST/HHC: http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hhc/all_watl.html
Reference SAL: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/wavetrak/sal.html



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