Here's the Cancun radar... its almost out of range now of the low thats in the GOM now... I think its been drifting to the west in the last few hours.
Cancun Radar
I would put the center Northwest of Cancun now, based on sats i have looked at.
This appears to be a western GOM system... almost looks like it going to follow the ULL, thats hindering its development right now.
RGB on Floater 2
This VIS should be the best shot of the system until it reaches landfall VIS - GOM
**noticed the storms trying to fire near the center, but are blown off to the north because of that ULL to the NW of the 91L.

**Also if i'm correct in my lat./long... TD4 should pass close to buoy Forro in the next 24 hrs.... The actual forecast is for TD4 to become a TS before it reaches it:

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 11.9N 38.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

with the buoy being at: 12 N 38 W (12Â°00'00"N 38Â°00'00"W)
Station 41026