i thought we were still harnessed with just one worry (current td 4/future dean) this morning until i saw the 11 am outlook and took a look at the visibles in the gulf. that thing is a pile of trouble for texas no matter what happens. i'd been worried something would want to go there given the persistent upper weakness over there most of the summer, and this one is going to. hydrologic conditions in texas are not what you would want with an impending heavy tropical rainfall event.
it's sort of hard to make out exactly what kind of surface feature is out there right now, given that the convection is heaping to the east. i'd expect a weak/broad center persisting until it gets convection closer or relocates to the more supportive upper conditions. every so often a system like this will bullheadedly plow into shear with supportive conditions just a little ways off... this one will have to really work at it to stay completely sloppy as the upper low is weakening and zipping westward. just the same, system is moving wnw and should run out of water in about 48 hrs. that should give it enough time to get organized but probably not enough to... oh, say, make an outlandish intensification run like alicia did in 1983. if i was in south and central texas i'd expect a tropical storm, and lots and lots of rain that you don't need.
td 4 has the odds stacked towards being a hurricane when it gets to the caribbean. it's been firing deep convection like a champ most of the day, in spite of some modest shear from behind. the latest advisory latched onto a lot of the things i was thinking earlier today, and played the right shift in the model guidance the way i was reckoning as well. it's definitely going to feel that ridge fracture off the east coast this weekend, and may end up getting north of the islands. on the same coin early next week that break will be filling and most of the globals show heights rising near the southeast... if it doesn't get it's ticket punched by that trough, it's probably going to end up in florida or the gulf. it's much too early to resolve how the ridging will drive this thing... with a potential system in the gulf the uncertainty is even higher, due to the feedback tropical systems create on the ridging that guides them... and not all of the globals resolve the east atlantic system well initially or track it in a believable way. even before this thing existed the models were doing ominous things with it. around about the 18th it's going to be making folks in the caribbean say uncle. if i was in florida i'd be mindful that around the 23rd something could be in your neighborhood. the globals have sent it everywhere from bermuda to hatteras to texas to honduras over the last few days, so that's in no way a likelihood... but i'd put better odds there right now.
HF 2207z13august