If the timing is off on the models and td4/dean is further to the west it could catch that opening in the ridge.

from the models over the last few days, that opening snaps shut and then i would think florida is in trouble

my only thought would be this would be threatening florida (and other places) closer to the 21st/22nd be in turks and caicos going one way or the other.

its far off to be sure but a lot rides on the models handling his forward speed properly because you can't get a good intensity forecast without being right on forward speed.

thanks for the indepth, helps see the whole picture