Dvorak estaimtes are:

2.5 for Dean
1.0 for 91L

2.5 is the cut off for Tropical Storm. This will be part of why Dean was upgraded to a Tropical Storm.

As for 91L, it sure looks to be organizing on satellite. We're at the half point between Dvorak numbers - I wonder if the NHC will upgrade it to TD 05 at 11.

Now to enter the real of real speculation:
Short term models show Dean taking a more northward drift. But the 7-9 day GFS shows it still hitting the US. The question is whether it breaks through the high pressure ridge to it's north and goes fish spinning, or whether that ridge keeps it south and forces it into land.

Almost all the intensity models are bringing Dean to Category 3 within 5 days. Now that the system is a TS, we should have better model outputs starting in 6-12 hours, which will give us better guidance.

--RC