Model runs change from run to run..never take 1 model and more then 1 model more then 3 days out. After that..its all speculation. 1 run might say east coast..next run will say Yucitan...and eigther or..they are many days out.

Any prediction right now is just guessing as the pattern changes and strengths of ridges..troughs upper lows pressures etc have to be aligned. Right now.. we are not 100% sure if this will hit the Leeward Islands or not..but will have a better idea after tonights 0z runs as it will then be less then 3 days out.

The Gulf system continues to be disorganized.. the recon might find winds over 30kt but right now its a elongated center of 1007mb. I would like to see a better center before I would upgrade this ..but I do feel it will become better organized this evening.