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FWIW,
I received an email from a friend of mine 3 days ago (he gets them from a family member at NOAA and asked me not to reveal their identity - sorry for the cloak and dagger nonsense), in which the model(s) pointed at a Florida east coast event on or around the 17-18. From the look of it, it was an early GFS run, so I took it with a grain of salt. I'm now watching this storm with interest, even though I'm on the other side of the state (west coast of Florida).
Not trying to sound alarmist, wishcasting, etc.... just telling you what I was told.
Bob - I am not a moderater here and I rarely post. But, in this instance I felt compelled to post and reply.
Why in the world would you post that here when the information is not only inaccurate but purely speculative as as well. Just because a friend of yours who has an anonymous family member at NOAA who's divulged some info does not mean it needs to be posted here "for our information" especially if it's obviously dated and inaccurate.
I know this sounds harsh but, Bob there are many many people who lurk on this site and take its contents to heart. Some lay person reading your post or worse yet, only reading half your post would be sent off to nearest shelter screaming.
As everyone here has devined, it's still way too far off to do anything but speculate and make sure we stress that in our posts.
Mods - please feel free to flog me for this post.
The GFS runs are freely available to the public out to 384hr -- 16 days -- and showed a storm impacting Florida well before the tropical wave even made it out over the water. In fact, the tropical disturbance was still in the eastern hemisphere when it started showing that. In other words, he's not putting anything out there that wasn't available to the public in the first place.
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Re: Dean and model tracks...