dean is stronger than the advisories are saying, i'd reckon. the low clouds from the exposed eastern side were whipping around pretty good earlier. this afternoon the convection has stopped bursting as strong, but it'll pick back up in an hr or a few. no reason not to. models trending stronger with the ridging, but i'm thinking they're underplaying the later storm and how much it will be reacting to whatever ridge fracture is off the east coast. don't think it's going to stay in the caribbean and not get into the western atlantic, i mean. its faster movement means the threat window for a u.s. hit would be 21-23 august, for florida at least. it's going to run into stuff on the way, wherever in the u.s. it might end up going.
the gulf thing... interesting that they chose not to tag it a depression. if it's a borderline system i would have erred on the side of classifying it. obviously a closed center, obviously some deep convection. i get that it's not a tight center and all... but this thing has the kind of upper support that will cause it to strengthen very quickly once it gets together. don't see the advantage on not putting watches up for the texas coast now as opposed to 10 pm cdt or in a special advisory, or whenever. but yeah, it is marginal. just the same, odds extremely high that it's erin tomorrow.
nuff for now.
HF 2235z14august