Essentially, it is too far out to know both it's track and intensity even when it reaches the Cuba area.

As is, intensity forecasts, the 5-day (Haiti area) range everywhere from a Tropical Storm through a strong Category 4. That's a huge range of possibilities. NHC dropped the outliers and chose the average of those left to come up with a category 2.

As is being discussed in the Forecast Lounge, the track is equally up in the air. One run send it off into the atlantic, the next into texas, the next into the carolinas, and the next into flordia. There is no clue how powerful this is going to be or where it's going after about 2-3 days.

--RC