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Essentially, it is too far out to know both it's track and intensity even when it reaches the Cuba area.
As is, intensity forecasts, the 5-day (Haiti area) range everywhere from a Tropical Storm through a strong Category 4. That's a huge range of possibilities. NHC dropped the outliers and chose the average of those left to come up with a category 2.
As is being discussed in the Forecast Lounge, the track is equally up in the air. One run send it off into the atlantic, the next into texas, the next into the carolinas, and the next into flordia. There is no clue how powerful this is going to be or where it's going after about 2-3 days.
--RC
So since no one knows what this hurricaine might do, what is your professional suggestion? In my experience in tracking storms across the New England area, there was one storm that we never saw coming and that was hurricaine floyd, but there was one in the early 90's as well that devistated New England (Perfect Storm) As I am new to this area, I do not know what to do in hurricaines. In New Hampshire we did not have to prepare for these things because they happened on a rare occassion. Over the last few years, New Hampshire has seen some wierd weather impacts, starting with the Mother's day floods in 2006, to the late start of the snow season finally hitting us on Valentines Day, and then again to the April 2006 floods (Which in all three incidences, I was requested to assist in natural disaster stuff with the National Guard) So I guess if no one can tell, not even the storm trackers that have been tracking storms for years, than what should I do? My fiancee seems to think that this storm is no threat to us, but I seem to think otherwise. You see, I think that once this storm crosses through the Haiti/Domincan Republic, I think that this storm will follow along the outside of Cuba, and then once it hits the warm Atlantic/Gulf waters make an aim at Florida. You see, no one in Florida is concerned right now because the meterologists are all telling us different things. This is August, and if this storm is unpredictable now, than how are people in the US suppose to prepare for such a disaster? Does anyone want to help me, because I would like to know if you think this storm is going to be another Andrew?
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Re: coupla things