just took a good look at Dean... while convection is coming back, he is still getting hit the NE shear (can see it in IR shots).... notice convection is not banding out... so another 12-24hrs of this, then i think we will see him grow and become better structured... I'm thinking now... based on models and forecast pattern... this is a Caribean system... after that... its too far out to tell... i don't think that weakness between the two ridges will be weak enough to allow him to skip the islands... but the models may change... need another 24hrs worth of runs to see...

as for the GOM... i would expect this to be at TS at landfall.... but not that strong at landfall.... (and atleast a TD by 5am package in the morning)..... the conditions are getting better for it now... the ULL is moving over TX... and the GOM temps ahead are VERY WARM... the ULL was the only thing holding this from becoming a TS in the GOM today.... **(shear)**