I've been of the impression all afternoon that 91L has not been able to consolidate around the original LLC because it has been attempting to reform, or recenter itself, under where the deepest convection has been sustained, which also looks to be, unsurprisingly, where the upper level winds and overall shear has been coming way, way down (LINK)

The entire gulf has seen some cyclonic wind flow about the rough center of the Low, but with this blowup getting even more impressive as we head into the overnight, I tend to agree that TD5 may be called as 11PM. Overall, I put the odds at 80% of 91L becoming an officiated tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours, it just has to consolidate a tiny bit more.

The most recent model run that is closest to what has been my line of thinking is the 18Z NAM (LINK). It plays out the scenario of the cyclone truly centering a bit to the north of where most others have it initialized, and rather than a trip into old Mexico, takes it landfalling as a strong tropical storm or borderline hurricane near Port O Conner, Texas (up the coast a little bit from Corpus).

If I had to pick a cone, I would go with anywhere from Brownsville to Port O Conner, but stressing that the impacts will be felt well-away from the COC, itself. This is an area (SE Texas) which has already seen tremendous flooding so far this summer. Despite the recent past couple of dry days and even weeks, grounds are still soggy, rivers and lakes still at or above normal levels.

EDIT - See what I get for not checking NRL et all before posting?

(Been a long, long day)