A lot of organization still going on with TD5. I've seen somewhat better-organized disturbances go without an upgrade, so it's a little easy to say that NHC may have been gracing this one a little bit. The recent QuikSCAT pass from 08/15 0028Z clearly revealed the original LLC way down near 21N 91W, and still arguably either the dominant or yet major player at the surface. However, that pass also did hint at a the possibility of a very tenuous replacement LLC forming underneath the MLC, and roughly where NHC pegged the approximate center of the broad circulation of the tropical low.

The most recent RUC run I looked at still picks up on the original LLC as being the nexus of TD5, but also forecasts a complete and thorough jumping of the center later today... and that, combined with a continuing favorable atmospheric environment and very warm SSTs still make the recent NAM runs the better bets, IMHO.

Pressures are now starting to fall more, and somewhat more rapidly, while convection is getting its act back together, as well.

Bottom line - deep south and southeastern Texas needs to be prepared for the prospect of widespread moderate to heavy rains, areas of high winds (especially along the coast), isolated tornadoes, and really, most of all.. more flooding.