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If the 5 day forecast of the NHC holds as now shown, I see no way how Dean stays out of the GOM. Yuck!
It is *possible* that Dean never makes THE TURN, and plows into Central America. The high in the SE that it giving us this oppressive weather and pushing TD 5 into Texas could keep Dean out of the picture.
Having said that, I don't expect it to - prepare for the worst, and it won't happen, they say. In 3-4 days we should know more, hopefully, but right now I think it's certainly not unreasonable to expect a Cat 3-4 (or higher) hurricane in the central GOM in the long term.
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