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The plane has been out in TD5 for awhile now and still no vortex message. I'm not used to interpreting the HD recon obs, but it appears that there may be more than one candidate for a LLC. None of the flight-level winds thus far indicate anything stronger than a depression. The satellite presentation does seem to be improving, with some banding features noted and also improving outflow. It is running out of time to do anything significant, though, especially considering it's apparent difficulty in establishing a well-defined low-level center. Update: At 1433 UTC (10:33 EDT), the plane reported flight-level winds of 42 knots, which would be pushing tropical storm strength when the typical wind reduction to the surface is applied. |