The TMI Satellite (see NRL) recently made an overpass of Dean. Impressive core showing up on microwave (85GHz). I would agree: expect a hurricane either next update or at 11pm.

Tracks seem to be converging, with both the 12Z CMC and GFS sending it strait toward the Yucatan.

One thing to remember on the models: they base the track on the levels of the atmosphere the system is currently in. As the system deepens, it begins to be affected by higher altitude steering currents. At present, we are too far out to see what they will do when Dean enters the Gulf, but it is something to keep in mind.

CMISS steering currents: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/winds-dlm.html