Random Chaos
(Weather Analyst)
Wed Aug 15 2007 05:49 PM
Re: Dean And Erin

Right now, no, it would stay on the westward track.

Take a look at the steering currents for hurricane strength (cat 1 only): http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm2.html

There isn't a northward movement of the steering currents for several days, so I don't think that speed on making hurricane will affect motion that much.

More likely to have affect as it enters the Caribbean, as that is when it will be near the northward steering currents. By then it should be stronger, probably need to reference the 400-850mb or 300-850mb steering current graphics. The gap that exists for stronger storms doesn't exist for a TS, and the models are using the TS strength system right now. We might very well have a chance at recurvature that the models aren't picking up on, depending on how fast that high from Canada can close the gap.

Only thing is we are still too far out. Those are "what it is now" graphics, and not "what it will be in 3 days." We just need to watch and see right now, and as the system deepens, the models will take the new pressure into account when determining track.



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