I always like to look at the visual image of a storm rather than the IR loop when deciding whether a storm is making a "jog." The center is usually a little more definitive, at least in the early going, on the visual for me. At any rate, here's the visual loop on Dean.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

If you click and check the box for the "trop frcst pts" you can see the forecast points plotted on top of the line the storm seems to be taking. If you do that with Dean, it does appear he is a tad bit north of the projected path, but only IF you draw it in a straight line to the next plotted point. And its a small "jog" at that.