Clark
(Meteorologist)
Wed Aug 15 2007 04:19 PM
Re: Dean And Erin

Yes, Hebert's box is an artifact of the days well before our numerical models could even begin to correctly forecast storm motion. Paul Hebert of the NHC noticed that a lot of storms that happened to pass through that area did or could impact S. Florida, and it has existed sort of as a "benchmark" ever since. As you mention, however, it's best suited as just a tool -- our numerical guidance and understanding of the atmosphere and tropical storms are both much improved today and should be relied upon moreso than a climatological forecast.

As a note for everyone today, please refrain from making the so-called "one line" posts (like "I think we could see something in <insert location here> from <insert storm here>.") If you have a personal question to ask another user, please use the Private Messaging feature of the boards instead of asking it here. Of course, if it's a question related to the storms, their tracks or impacts, or something of that nature, please feel free to ask those here. (And discuss the storms here, too!) Thanks all...