the rainy summer in texas is about to pay dividends for flooding concerns. erin should pile a good bit of misery on what has been a constant theme for texans. in spite of the suddenly impressive satellite appearance this morning the center remains disorganized and not very strong. oftentimes these western gulf systems do that right up to landfall, but quickly improve just before going in and on the way in. erin has another 12 hr or so unless the center jumps nw, so the forecast intensity should probably stay put. just a good thing it didn't develop a defined center yesterday morning... right now an intensifying hurricane would be coming closer instead.
dean is a little fellow, but looks healthy and ready to keep getting stronger. i'm really surprised that none of the caribbean island governments are issuing watches... it should be on them inside 48 hr. model consensus keeps dragging dean further west and faster. i keep looking at that ridge fracture that cuts off and backs west, that's supposed to not affect the storm... but am not convinced that it's totally right. think the consensus is too far left, and that the larger caribbean islands have more to worry about... but that's just an opinion. in any case the forecast intensity at a scary cat 4 looks right as rain, not the least bit surprising. my initial nerves were for florida in some capacity, but not a whole lot of the number-crunchers think so right now. the g4 will be out there eventually and toss in some better readings, and then we'll have a really good idea who has to deal with this sucker.
out behind dean the waves are following in a conga, with another well defined one just west of the cape verdes, and another good one coming off. seems to be enough separation from speedy dean for the trailer... i'd expect another one out of the current two followers (models resolving them funny and many seem to be merging them). keep that on the back burner while dean comes a-calling on the caribbean.
HF 2156z15august