Nice informative post Hank! I know you said you think the NHC is to far to the left on the track now but doesn't this storm look like a Central America problem and not a United States from current models? Any body care to fill me in on why the GOM should still be worried? I thought this ridge will be dug in like a tick.

Look at the satellite in teh Bahamas, a strong trough is digging a bit south and could be what is causing a more WNW movement on Dean. I agree with Hank on this one, I can't see it moving to Mexico.. I see this more like a Dennis/Ivan storm. Also we thought Ernesto last year was going into the GOM, but then while it was in the carribean, the storm veared NW and headed to the East Coast. In this explaining that ANYTHING can happen with Dean, it could still hit the East Coast, could be a category 4-5 in the GOM, or could actually miss the USA and hit Mexico, It's still out to sea right now.. lets see what happens.