cieldumort
(Moderator)
Wed Aug 15 2007 08:02 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Erin Forms in Gulf of Mexico

All indications are that Erin has -nearly- opened up into an open wave this afternoon. The constant re-centering having exacted a cost on the formative cyclone's potential. All along Erin has been a somewhat generous call, but not outlandishly so. Simply, the mid level circulation has outrun and outperformed the low levels, at the cost of leaving the low levels in the wakes to play catch-up. Erin still has a chance to become something closer to a full-on tropical storm overnight tonight, taking advantage of the nocturnal max.


Once inland, it is very possible that Erin slows down, spins down, and produces overnight core rains. Most models are supportive of this scenario in at least some fashion.

A further concern for us in Texas, Dean may want to generally follow any left-over troffiness out here.

Please
To reiterate what others have already said, please put the one-liners and chat room posts in the appropriate forums, or private messages.



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