Ok, I wake up to Dean with a 10 mile eye clearly visible on IR. Dvorak shows it clearly too. I am unused to a system below category two with a clear and discernable eye on IR, and it was visible while Dean was still a Tropical Storm.

Based on this, I think Dean has the possibility to rapidly strengthen over the next day. It is extremely well organized for a Cat 1 storm.

As for the GFDL, it doesn't surprise me that we are now seeing a late period northward curve. The steering guidance for deeper storms has a weaker ridge to the north. As Dean deepens, it will be able to make the northward turn sooner as the steering currents will turn northward at an earlier point.

Take a look at the steering currents for a TS strength system (990mb) vs a strong hurricane (930-950mb). Remember that those graphics are current, not forcast in several days. Now, looking at those graphics, you can see the steering currents circle tighter to the ridge for deeper storms, allowing a northward curve earlier. Most models do not take the deepening of the storm into account when determining track, and thus the more westerly motion indicated in most models.

Lisa: Good question. NHC hasn't updated their recon schedule in two days. According to the discussion it said sometime this afternoon, but when?