In 1980 hurricane Allen moved into the E. Carib. at 59.1 and 13.6 with a 10 mile wide eye, moving at 20 knots, with 110 knot winds. Allen was a couple weeks earlier than Dean, so water temps may have been a little cooler. Dean is getting some dry air on its west side mixing in, so intensification may not match Allens, but not out of the question.

Recon is scheduled to arrive in Dean at 18z. Should have a vortex message around 2 - 3pm EST.

GFDL does show the N. Gulf move but bends it back toward Texas at the end with a ridge building westward.

Tonights 0z GFS will have the Gulfstream 4 data in it's initialzation. Have to see if any major track changes occur. Gulfstream 4 mission runs at 18z also.