It will be interesting to see what the plane finds when it gets to Dean this afternoon. If anything, the apparent eye on the satellite images is actually less than 10 mi. across, since the images don't seem to be fully resolving it (assuming that it is a clear, "pinhole" eye). The CDO convection is somewhat asymmetric and not super intense, so that would suggest it didn't go too crazy overnight.

The major player in the track of Dean still appears to be the upper low that is forecast to traverse the Gulf of Mexico from east to west ahead of Dean. Such things tend to throw a monkey wrench into the track forecasts of tropical systems. The intensity could be affected by the upper low as well, since it could enhancing the outflow of Dean, depending on the eventual orientation of the systems.

I am a little confused by some of the comments re: the GFDL on its latest forecast. It does indeed tug Dean northward into the Gulf of Mexico, but it also depicts a very strong system (cat 4 intensity), not a relatively weak one.