I think the Hurricane Center is also well aware of the possibility that the high may not build up and block Dean from the GOM. Throughout their discussions they have been incessantly saying that we all should be watching this storm. I think they are pinning their hopes that the NOAA G-IV will give them the data they need to either confirm the GFDL scenario or correct the model runs. Until they can confirm the GOM is a strong possibility for Dean, it would be imprudent to alarm the already shaken Louisiana and Mississippi folks. Not to minimize the potential human cost of the Dean GOM scenario, but the financial markets are already taking a beating with the mortgage companies. Imagine the prospect of a Cat 5 storm plowing again through the GOM oil fields and refineries.