Hey All,

Just watching and waiting to see what happens with the models since Dean isn't even to the islands yet. 12z Euro appears to be a southern outlier (often happens with that model). Lots of flooding in the Houston metro based on some training from Erin with some reports of 6"/hour rainfall rates (not substantiated by me).

GFDL's 12z run really makes things look bad for the Houston metro again. I have no way to know if it's going to verify (doubt it), but it, along with the other models, should change a few more times during the next few days. Everyone from the islands, to the Yuctan to the US Gulf Coast needs to be paying close attention. If the GFDL 12z scenario appears like it's going to pan out, you might want to gas up your vehicles/generators/spare tanks sooner rather than later. Gas prices will go up in response. And all we can do is speculate beyond that if it actually verifies what's going to happen with them.

As for the question on the difference between daytime heating thunderstorms and diurnal maximums, the source moisture and synoptics are different. Clark, Ed, HF, Jason or one of the pro mets could probably put it better layman's terms than I could.

Steve